U.S. Pressure on European Nations Raises Fears of Trade War Amidst New Challenge from Trump
Not even a full year has passed since European leaders vowed to coexist with Trump’s second presidency, yet today the region feels it has reached a dangerous turning point in this volatile journey. The occupant of the White House is hurling economic threats at countries that support the territorial integrity of an EU member state, Denmark.
An emergency EU summit regarding this matter will be held in the coming days. If Europe chooses to retaliate against these measures, it could expose itself to a full-scale trade confrontation with the United States.
However, if Europe hesitates to act, will it allow Trump to conclude that the bloc is weak, divided, and afraid to prevent him from carrying out his threat to pursue the annexation of Iceland, whether by purchase or military force?
French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for the use of the EU’s “trade weapons” for the first time. This refers to the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which would enable Europe to respond with counter-tariffs, restrictions on access to the single market, and the suspension of lucrative EU contract deliveries. There is a strong consensus that this weapon was originally designed to counter provocative interference by a hostile foreign power. They were thinking of China, not the United States.
Currently, some EU leaders appear hesitant regarding Macron’s strategy. Among them is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who understands President Trump’s behavior better than most. She speaks of a “problem of understanding and communication” regarding some European countries—including Denmark—recently sending troops to Iceland, but she did not specify what exactly was misunderstood.
If the goal was to appease Trump and signal that he is right about securing Arctic security, the sight of those troops seemed only to provoke him into renewing his recent threat. Meloni’s explanation that this is merely something “lost in translation” opens the door to a more diplomatic strategy to resolve this fragile crisis between the EU and the US.
The emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels yesterday was a reserved affair, unlike routine high-level summits where traffic stops, road funding is suspended, and national leaders rush to calm the public. It remains unclear who will lead the next move, and whether Trump will be cautious in using this threat or will, in fact, double down on it.
EU action on such a sensitive matter is likely to be slow and complex. Europe tried to appease President Trump during his second term in the best way possible—some called it intelligence, others a necessary acceptance. But now, there is a distinct rumor that he is not only raising the transatlantic bridge of diplomatic consultation but threatening to blow it up entirely.
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