International Energy Agency forecasts stronger global oil demand growth in 2026 and lower supply growth
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its monthly report released today from its headquarters in Paris, revised its global oil market outlook. The report highlighted an upward adjustment in global oil demand growth for 2026, alongside a downward revision in projected oil supply growth.
The agency stated that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day by 2026, reflecting an improvement compared to the previous estimate of 4.09 million barrels per day in last November’s report. Demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were also raised.
The report noted that this demand growth reflects improved economic expectations and reduced concerns about tariffs. The agency also projected slightly lower-than-expected supply growth in 2025 and 2026.
The IEA expects the continuation of “parallel markets,” where excess crude supply coincides with fuel shortages, a trend likely to persist in the near term.
The agency highlighted that lower oil prices and a weakening dollar—both near four-year lows—support higher oil demand next year. It also noted that demand growth in 2025 was almost entirely driven by non-OECD countries.
Global oil supply is expected to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2025, down slightly from the previous estimate of 2.5 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day and for 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day.
