Iraq has closed the Al-Shaib border crossing with Iran, amid debate over the motives behind the decision and its implications. Concerns range from rising food prices and the possibility of Baghdad being used as a tool to pressure Tehran to calls for tighter controls to prevent arms smuggling and the use of border areas to launch attacks against neighboring countries.<\/p>\n
While the official explanation for the closure cites a security review and the installation of detection equipment, the decision came after a launch platform was discovered near the crossing a month ago, from which drones were reportedly launched to target a Saudi oil pipeline, according to information presented on the \u201cRadar\u201d program.<\/p>\n
Khaled Al-Sarai, head of the National Media Observatory, and international relations researcher Shaho Al-Qaradaghi offered differing interpretations of the decision. The former focused on its economic costs and the possibility of external pressure, while the latter emphasized the need to protect Iraqi sovereignty and secure the borders.<\/p>\n
Al-Sarai called on the government to clarify how long the closure would last and whether it would extend to other crossings. He warned against leaving room for speculation and political exploitation, as well as the impact that prolonging the closure could have on prices in the southern provinces.<\/p>\n
He explained that keeping the crossing closed for a month or longer could force authorities to seek alternative routes, potentially driving up food prices, particularly vegetables, given the border provinces\u2019 close trade ties with Iran.<\/p>\n
Al-Sarai expressed concern that the decision might have been made at the behest of the United States, arguing that Washington views border crossings as routes for smuggling weapons and money and facilitating the movement of armed factions, without giving sufficient consideration to the domestic consequences of such measures for Iraq.<\/p>\n
He questioned whether the United States could compensate Baghdad for its electricity needs, noting that between 30 and 40 percent of Iraq\u2019s electricity generation depends on Iranian gas. Although he acknowledged ongoing controversy over arms and money smuggling through the crossing, he said he trusted the government and believed it was committed to serving Iraq\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n
Al-Sarai stressed that Iraq should avoid fully siding with one party against another and reject being turned into an overt pressure tool against Iran, particularly given the fragility of its economy and the pressures caused by the rising dollar and the declining value of the Iraqi dinar.<\/p>\n
Regarding the possibility of replacing trade with Iran through crossings with Turkey or Kuwait, he questioned the cost, time, and logistical capacity involved, emphasizing that redirecting trade routes would not be easy. He supported taking the necessary measures to protect the country but called for the government to announce its next steps rather than simply stating that the closure would remain in effect \u201cuntil further notice,\u201d allowing citizens and traders to prepare for the consequences.<\/p>\n
Al-Qaradaghi, by contrast, rejected the idea that the closure was a response to American pressure. He argued that it served the state\u2019s interests by curbing arms smuggling and preventing armed groups from exploiting the border to launch attacks that could harm Iraq.<\/p>\n
He maintained that the government was not required to justify its decisions to Iran or any other country, criticizing what he described as Tehran\u2019s attempts to evade sanctions and preserve its interests at Baghdad\u2019s expense. However, he noted that closing a single crossing would not be enough to combat smuggling, calling for comprehensive border controls that take economic interests and Iraq\u2019s relations with neighboring countries into account.<\/p>\n
On energy, Al-Qaradaghi pointed to the Kormor gas field in the Kurdistan Region as one domestic option for strengthening Iraq\u2019s energy independence. He accused armed groups aligned with Iran of targeting the field to obstruct its development and maintain Iraq\u2019s reliance on Iranian gas.<\/p>\n
He also accused Tehran of obstructing the development of energy infrastructure and thwarting Arab offers to supply Iraq with electricity, arguing that recovery was possible if the political will existed.<\/p>\n
Al-Qaradaghi predicted that Iran would not escalate tensions with Baghdad because it needed economic ties and access to Iraqi markets. He suggested that groups allied with Tehran would gradually adapt to tighter controls in order to preserve their political gains.<\/p>\n
He cited the gradual approach to the issue of placing all weapons under state control, noting that some parties initially opposed the policy before beginning to accept it as enforcement measures tightened. He argued that securing the borders would likewise take time.<\/p>\n
He acknowledged that turning to alternative trade routes could impose painful economic costs initially. Nevertheless, he stressed the need to prevent Iraq from becoming an arena for settling scores or launching attacks against neighboring countries, calling for a comprehensive review of Iraq\u2019s relationship with Iran.<\/p>\n
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