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War or Attrition? Understanding the Israeli Escalation in Lebanon | News.

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Israel continues to intensify its airstrikes across broad areas of Lebanese territory, described by military expert Brigadier General Hassan Jouni as a “war zone,” while disregarding all ongoing diplomatic contacts and efforts.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Jouni explained that Israel selects its targets based on military and psychological considerations, aiming to increase pressure on the support base, the Lebanese state, the Lebanese people, and also on Hezbollah.

He noted that the targeting map reveals a deliberate pattern of movement between geographical sectors. After intensifying raids on the Northern Beqaa (Baalbek and Hermel) and repeating them in the Iqlim al-Tuffah region, the strikes moved to the Western Beqaa, targeting the towns of Sahmar and Machghara—two areas that had not previously seen significant targeting.

Earlier today, Thursday, Israeli aircraft targeted the town of Sahmar in the Beqaa region of eastern Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities. A statement from the occupation army indicated that “the air force bombed military targets and infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in multiple areas in Lebanon,” confirming it would bomb other targets in the town of Machghara.

The military expert believe that this sequence means keeping the entire Lebanese map under military pressure through successive strikes at times determined by the Israeli army.

North of the Litani

Jouni directly linked the intensification of raids north of the Litani River to the ongoing discussion regarding the Lebanese Army’s upcoming plan to monopolize weaponry in this region, as a continuation of what was implemented south of the Litani.

He pointed out that this issue remains a subject of internal debate and differing interpretations of agreements and UN Resolution 1701, noting a divergence in interpretation between Hezbollah, the Lebanese state, and international powers.

Jouni considered that the repeated targeting north of the Litani aims, on the ground, to highlight the area and push it to become a direct target for the disarmament process, or to pressure the Lebanese state and army to accelerate the implementation of the weapon monopoly plan.

The Lebanese Army had previously stated that its plan to restrict weaponry “achieved its first phase objectives south of the Litani River and entered an advanced stage,” warning that Israeli attacks and occupation of Lebanese sites “negatively affect” its completion.

The military expert ruled out the possibility of a large-scale war breaking out, asserting that the chances of war have temporarily receded, though the danger has not ended. He added that the “postponement of war” is pending what the Lebanese government and Hezbollah will do, emphasizing that the ball has been forcibly placed in the Lebanese court, with Israeli and American hints that failure to complete the weapon monopoly may push Israel to carry out this mission militarily.

Israel continues to breach the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, which has been in place since November 2024, resulting in hundreds of deaths and injuries. Furthermore, Tel Aviv continues to occupy five Lebanese hills it seized in the last war, in addition to other areas it has occupied for decades.


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