Market volatility intensifies amid uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July delivery rose to $98.12 per barrel, an increase of 1.84% compared to the previous closing price, as of 09:25 Moscow time.
Global Brent crude futures for the same month also climbed to $104.96 per barrel, recording an increase of 2.32% over the previous settlement level.
In a related context, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that an agreement with the United States has not yet been finalized, despite narrowing gaps between both sides during negotiations, while U.S. Secretary of State “Marco Rubio” pointed to the presence of “some positive signs” in the talks, while simultaneously confirming that imposing any fees on transit through the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable.
Oil prices had declined by about 2% in Thursday’s session, closing at their lowest level in nearly two weeks.
Satoru Yoshida, commodity analyst at “Rakuten Securities,” explained that the current rise in prices is attributed to the continued uncertainty regarding the course of peace talks and the accompanying concerns related to supply stability through the Strait of Hormuz.
Yoshida expected West Texas Intermediate crude to move within a range between $90 and $110 during the coming week, continuing the price range that has dominated the market since late March.
Supply pressures prompt international warnings amid escalating oil crisis
Amid the direct continuation of the volatility wave affecting energy markets, recently linked to ongoing uncertainty regarding Iran–United States negotiations and their repercussions on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency warned that the recovery of oil production and refining operations in the Middle East may require a long period before returning to previous normal levels.
The agency’s Executive Director “Fatih Birol” said in remarks reported by CNBC that oil markets may be approaching the “red zone” amid declining global inventories and rising seasonal summer demand, noting that continued supply disruptions or closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push the market into a critical phase during July or August.
Birol confirmed the agency’s readiness to act and coordinate any additional withdrawals from strategic reserves if the situation requires it, indicating that the complete and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents the most important factor in containing the current energy shock, given that about 20% of global oil and liquefied gas trade passes through it.
He added that markets entered the crisis with a degree of surplus that helped absorb the initial shock, but that margin has gradually begun to erode with the continuation of disruptions, warning that developing countries in Asia and Africa will be the most affected by the repercussions of the crisis, whose effects extend from energy security to global food security.
This comes as oil prices continue to record notable increases in global markets amid ongoing fears of supply shortages and worsening geopolitical tensions in the region.
Oil declines amid bets on a diplomatic breakthrough and reopening of Hormuz
In a development reflecting sharp fluctuations in the energy market, and following intense international warnings about fragile supplies and the possibility of the market entering the “red zone” due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and erosion of global inventories, oil prices recorded a clear decline amid growing hopes for the possibility of reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran that would ease tensions.
In this context, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that any potential agreement with Iran would include reopening Hormuz to free navigation, without revealing additional details related to the terms of the understanding or implementation mechanisms.
This statement comes at a time when markets fluctuate between supply shortage pressures and fears of escalation on one hand, and expectations of diplomatic de-escalation on the other, especially after a series of international reports indicated that stabilizing energy flows through vital corridors could be a decisive factor in restoring balance to global markets during the coming period.
Gold rises amid energy market shifts and dollar decline
As an extension of the fluctuations affecting global commodity markets, and following a severe wave of volatility in oil prices linked to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, markets continued repricing risks, which was reflected in rising demand for safe-haven assets, most notably gold.
Gold prices today achieved an increase of more than 1%, supported by the decline of the dollar and lower oil prices amid uncertainty dominating the geopolitical and economic landscape.
Spot gold rose by 1.4% to reach about $4,570.88 per ounce, while U.S. June futures climbed by 1.1% to $4,572.90 per ounce.
The gains also extended to other precious metals, with silver rising by 3.9% to $78.42 per ounce, platinum increasing by 1.9% to $1,959.85, while palladium gained 1.9% to $1,373.25.
This performance comes amid the continued interconnection between energy markets, oil, and currency markets, making any developments related to supplies or geopolitical tensions quickly reflected in the movement of precious metals globally.
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Author: Counselor Faisal Al-Mutairi.
Publication date: May 25, 2026.
Last updated:
