Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled political de-escalation push markets toward greater volatility and price pressure
Oil markets reported that U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for the upcoming June contract rose by 1.60%, reaching $99.64 per barrel by 09:12 Moscow time. At the same time, Brent crude futures for July delivery increased by 1.25% to $105.51 per barrel. Both benchmarks also recorded a 2.8% gain during trading on Monday.
In the same context, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that the ceasefire with Iran is “on the verge of collapse.” He added that disagreements remain over several demands, including ending hostilities on all fronts, lifting the U.S. maritime blockade on Iran, resuming Iranian oil exports, and compensating for war damages.
For its part, Tehran reaffirmed its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, through which global oil and liquefied natural gas flows pass.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said in an email that “U.S.-Iran negotiations remain unresolved, and actual flows through the Strait of Hormuz are still restricted, and prices are likely to remain above $100.” He added: “Any real progress toward a peace deal could trigger a sharp correction of $8 to $12, while any escalation or new blockade threats could quickly push prices above $115.”
Disruptions linked to potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already reduced oil exports.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, warned yesterday that disruptions to oil exports through the strait could delay a return to normal market conditions until 2027, potentially resulting in a loss of around 100 million barrels per week.
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